Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Under-20s win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Ecuador Under-20s had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA Under-20s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Ecuador Under-20s win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Under-20s would win this match.