Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
22.24% ( 0.25) | 23.26% ( 0.18) | 54.5% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 54.17% ( -0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.93% ( -0.49) | 46.08% ( 0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.63% ( -0.47) | 68.38% ( 0.47) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.11% ( -0.04) | 34.89% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.37% ( -0.04) | 71.63% ( 0.05) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.2% ( -0.33) | 16.8% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.24% ( -0.59) | 46.77% ( 0.59) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
1-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.04% Total : 22.24% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.6% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 45 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 26 |
9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 24 |
12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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