Two teams that started the campaign with Major League Soccer playoff ambitions will lock horns on Saturday evening when Minnesota United welcome the visit of San Jose Earthquakes.
Currently second-bottom in the Western Conference, San Jose will be wary of slipping away from the pack, with three points the target this weekend.
Match preview
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While they may still have their unbeaten record intact, Minnesota are yet to light up the division this season, winning one and drawing two of their opening three matches.
Their first two games of the season both ended in draws, before United picked up their first win of the campaign against New York Red Bulls last time out.
It also represented the first clean sheet of the season for Minnesota, who moved into the top seven with the win.
The same cannot be said for the Earthquakes, who are languishing towards the bottom of the Western Conference after matchday three.
Yet to win a game this season, San Jose boast just one point to their name, which came in a thrilling 3-3 draw at home to Columbus Crew.
Unlike Saturday's opponents, San Jose are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league and have shipped two goals or more in all three of their games so far.
Troublesome times for the Earthquakes, who will not take much confidence from their head-to-head record against Minnesota either, having not won any of their last six meetings.
In fact, San Jose last triumphed in this fixture all the way back in 2018, but did go the first five matches between the pair unbeaten.
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Team News
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The hosts enter the weekend without two players from their roster, with Patrick Weah continuing his recovery from an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Elsewhere, a thigh problem is likely to keep Romain Metanire out of the starting lineup, yet the defender could be in line for a place on the substitutes' bench.
Luis Amarilla scored the winning goal against the Red Bulls last time out and is expected to lead the line for Minnesota this weekend.
Rather surprisingly, Francisco Calvo has top scored for the Earthquakes this season and the goalscoring defender will marshal the hosts' backline once again.
One man who will not feature in that defence is Nathan Cardoso, as the defender is likely to be out until mid-April with a knee problem.
A similar issue is stunting Shea Salinas' return to the side, whereas George Asomani is nearing the end of his recovery from a hip injury.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Clair; Dotson, Boxall, Kallman, Taylor; Trapp, Arriaga; Lod, Reynoso, Fragapane; Amarilla
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Yueill, Calvo, Lopez; Remedi, Lopez, Gregus; Espinoza, Kikanovic, Ebobisse
We say: Minnesota United 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Two sides in contrasting form, the chances of San Jose ending their rut against a Minnesota side look slim.
The head-to-head record sides with the hosts, who should have enough to take three points in this Western Conference clash.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 21.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
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