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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
39.7% ( -4.25) | 27.32% ( 0.31) | 32.98% ( 3.94) |
Both teams to score 49.5% ( 0.62) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.04% ( 0.07) | 55.96% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.95% ( 0.05) | 77.06% ( -0.06) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.45% ( -2.23) | 27.55% ( 2.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.94% ( -2.96) | 63.06% ( 2.96) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.32% ( 2.87) | 31.68% ( -2.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.91% ( 3.17) | 68.09% ( -3.18) |
Score Analysis |
Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 11.25% ( -0.76) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.43) 2-0 @ 7.25% ( -1) 3-1 @ 3.58% ( -0.43) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( -0.66) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.29) Other @ 1.95% Total : 39.7% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.31% | 0-1 @ 10.03% ( 0.73) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.65) 0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.83) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.45) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.46) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.19) Other @ 2.86% Total : 32.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 |
2 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 56 | 34 | 22 | 61 |
3 | Stevenage | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 60 |
4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 59 |
5 | Bradford CityBradford | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 57 |
6 | Salford City | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 56 |
7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 |
9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 51 |
10 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 51 |
11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 49 |
12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 48 |
13 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 33 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 47 |
14 | Walsall | 32 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 43 |
15 | AFC Wimbledon | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 39 |
17 | Grimsby Town | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 38 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 37 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 35 |
20 | Gillingham | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 34 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 32 |
22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 35 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 29 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 26 |
24 | Rochdale | 35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 25 |
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