Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
