Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 54.4%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 23.16% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.