Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
