Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 37.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
