Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.53%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
