Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 64.03%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
