Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 65.95%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 3-1 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
65.95% | 17.9% | 16.14% |
Both teams to score 62.21% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.51% | 30.49% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.22% | 51.78% |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.32% | 8.67% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.11% | 29.88% |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.12% | 31.87% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.68% | 68.32% |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
2-1 @ 9.45% 2-0 @ 8.26% 3-1 @ 7.7% 1-0 @ 6.76% 3-0 @ 6.74% 4-1 @ 4.71% 3-2 @ 4.4% 4-0 @ 4.12% 4-2 @ 2.69% 5-1 @ 2.3% 5-0 @ 2.01% 5-2 @ 1.32% 4-3 @ 1.03% 6-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.52% Total : 65.95% | 1-1 @ 7.73% 2-2 @ 5.4% 0-0 @ 2.77% 3-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 0.33% Total : 17.9% | 1-2 @ 4.42% 0-1 @ 3.16% 2-3 @ 2.06% 0-2 @ 1.81% 1-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 3.01% Total : 16.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 26 | 22 | 42 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 26 |
9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 24 |
12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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