Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 21.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
