Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.82%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 20.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
