Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 31% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
