Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Gil Vicente in this match.
