Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 67.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
67.77% | 18.8% | 13.43% |
Both teams to score 51.38% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59% | 41% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.61% | 63.39% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.88% | 11.12% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.46% | 35.54% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.81% | 42.19% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.4% | 78.6% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-0 @ 11.31% 1-0 @ 10.3% 2-1 @ 9.77% 3-0 @ 8.29% 3-1 @ 7.15% 4-0 @ 4.55% 4-1 @ 3.93% 3-2 @ 3.09% 5-0 @ 2% 5-1 @ 1.73% 4-2 @ 1.7% Other @ 3.96% Total : 67.76% | 1-1 @ 8.89% 0-0 @ 4.69% 2-2 @ 4.21% Other @ 1% Total : 18.8% | 0-1 @ 4.05% 1-2 @ 3.84% 0-2 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.21% 1-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.48% Total : 13.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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