Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (7.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Braga |
24.96% | 25.42% | 49.61% |
Both teams to score 50.5% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.57% | 52.43% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.89% | 74.11% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.05% | 35.95% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.27% | 72.73% |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.85% | 21.15% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46% | 54% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 7.78% 2-1 @ 6.18% 2-0 @ 3.98% 3-1 @ 2.11% 3-2 @ 1.64% 3-0 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.92% Total : 24.96% | 1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 7.6% 2-2 @ 4.8% Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.42% | 0-1 @ 11.81% 1-2 @ 9.39% 0-2 @ 9.18% 1-3 @ 4.86% 0-3 @ 4.75% 2-3 @ 2.49% 1-4 @ 1.89% 0-4 @ 1.85% 2-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.44% Total : 49.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 12 | 39 | 53 |
2 | Porto | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 48 | 12 | 36 | 51 |
3 | Braga | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 49 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 38 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 33 |
6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 31 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 30 |
8 | Vizela | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 |
9 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 26 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 26 |
11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 26 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 24 |
13 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 24 |
14 | Gil Vicente | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 15 |
17 | Maritimo | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 13 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 12 |
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