Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 24.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (8.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
49.22% ( -0.69) | 26.24% ( -0.12) | 24.54% ( 0.81) |
Both teams to score 47.76% ( 1.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.18% ( 1.04) | 55.82% ( -1.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.06% ( 0.84) | 76.95% ( -0.84) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.27% ( 0.13) | 22.73% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.6% ( 0.19) | 56.4% ( -0.2) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.81% ( 1.33) | 38.19% ( -1.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.05% ( 1.25) | 74.95% ( -1.25) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 12.86% ( -0.47) 2-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.83% Total : 49.23% | 1-1 @ 12.37% 0-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.96% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.59% Total : 24.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |