Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
