Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
