Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 60.62%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruz Azul would win this match.
