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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Carlisle United |
31.38% ( 0.04) | 27.67% ( 0) | 40.95% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 47.99% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.35% ( 0.01) | 57.65% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.59% ( 0.01) | 78.41% ( -0.01) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.34% ( 0.03) | 33.66% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.68% ( 0.03) | 70.32% ( -0.03) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.35% ( -0.02) | 27.65% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.8% ( -0.02) | 63.2% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 10.13% 2-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.57% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 31.38% | 1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( 0) Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.66% | 0-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.37% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.69% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.95% 1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 1.87% Total : 40.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 |
2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 |
3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 |
4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 65 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 60 |
7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 56 |
9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 |
10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 |
11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 |
12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 36 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 50 |
13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 |
14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 |
15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 42 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
20 | Gillingham | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 38 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 32 |
23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 |
24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 |
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