Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
