Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 19.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.81%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
