Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
41.18% | 25.94% | 32.88% |
Both teams to score 53.81% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.55% | 50.45% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.62% | 72.38% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.77% | 24.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.42% | 58.59% |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.02% | 28.98% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.12% | 64.88% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 9.96% 2-1 @ 8.74% 2-0 @ 7.06% 3-1 @ 4.13% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.46% 4-0 @ 1.18% 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.86% Total : 41.18% | 1-1 @ 12.33% 0-0 @ 7.02% 2-2 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.94% | 0-1 @ 8.7% 1-2 @ 7.64% 0-2 @ 5.39% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.23% 0-3 @ 2.22% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.57% Total : 32.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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