Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 21.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Salt Lake would win this match.