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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth
Derby
1 - 1
Portsmouth
Collins (71')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bishop (24')
Towler (6'), Morrell (55')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Portsmouth, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Accrington
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth

The two sides played out a goalless draw when they met in November, and with both sides proving tough to beat in recent weeks, we think that Saturday's meeting could also finish all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
53.54% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 24.17% (0.00099999999999767 0) 22.28% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 51.34% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.14%49.85% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.15%71.85% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.45% (0.00099999999999056 0)18.55% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.2% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)49.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.0019999999999953 0)36.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.24% (0.0010000000000012 0)73.75% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 53.54%
    Portsmouth 22.28%
    Draw 24.16%
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
1-0 @ 11.55%
2-0 @ 9.73%
2-1 @ 9.68% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 5.47%
3-1 @ 5.44%
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-0 @ 2.3%
4-1 @ 2.29%
4-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 53.54%
1-1 @ 11.49%
0-0 @ 6.86%
2-2 @ 4.82%
Other @ 1%
Total : 24.16%
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-2 @ 5.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 1.9%
2-3 @ 1.6%
0-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 22.28%

How you voted: Derby vs Portsmouth

Derby County
84.6%
Draw
7.7%
Portsmouth
7.7%
13
Head to Head
Nov 18, 2022 8pm
Aug 12, 2015 7.45pm
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Derby
Varney (74')
Kitson (42'), Varney (55'), Pearce (65')
Buxton (41'), Davies (78' pen.)
Davies (65')
Oct 29, 2011 3pm
Derby
3-1
Portsmouth
Ward (33'), Bryson (3'), Maguire (14')
Shackell (9')
Pearce (79')
Varney (86')
Feb 5, 2011 3pm
Portsmouth
1-1
Derby
Nugent (90')
Hogg (52'), De Laet (85')
Davies (34')
Davies (75'), Cywka (78')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPlymouth ArgylePlymouth463187824735101
3Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds462812681374496
4Barnsley462681280473386
5Bolton WanderersBolton4623121162362681
6Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462451775542177
7Derby CountyDerby4621131267462176
8Portsmouth4617191061501170
9Wycombe WanderersWycombe46209175951869
10Charlton AthleticCharlton461614167066462
11Lincoln CityLincoln461420124747062
12Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46178215261-959
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood461416165351258
14Exeter CityExeter461511206468-456
15Burton Albion461511205779-2256
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham461412204561-1654
17Bristol Rovers461411215873-1553
18Port Vale461310234871-2349
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd461114214956-747
20Cambridge UnitedCambridge46137264168-2746
RMK Dons461112234466-2245
22Morecambe461014224778-3144
RAccrington StanleyAccrington461111244077-3744
RForest Green RoversForest Green4669313189-5827

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