Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 23.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
