Two sides outside of the playoff places in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference do battle on Thursday, as New York Red Bulls travel to take on Toronto.
Both sides will feel that they have been slightly underwhelming so far this season but appear to be in improved form, with the hosts having picked up four points from their last two games and the visitors being unbeaten in three MLS matches.
Match preview
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Toronto recently found themselves in a poor losing run in the MLS, suffering six straight defeats to move to the foot of the Conference table.
It was wrapped up with the lowest point, as Kevin Paredes, Nigel Robertha, Paul Arriola, Ola Kamara, Yamil Asad and Griffin Yow all got on the scoresheet alongside a Ralph Priso own goal to see DC United record a dominant 7-1 win, triggering the departure of manager Chris Armas.
However, they responded in a mature way to the loss of their manager, breaking the losing run with an impressive 3-2 win over Conference leaders New England Revolution in the following game thanks to early goals from Yeferson Soteldo, Kemar Lawrence and Tsubasa Endoh.
They then looked to build on that in another tough clash last time out, and they would earn another creditable point in a 1-1 draw with high-fliers Orlando City, with Nani equalising for the opposition after Jozy Altidore had put his side ahead.
Having shown clear improvement since their losing run, Toronto will be desperate to continue their upturn in form to see a rise up the division, but they take on a side in an identical situation.
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After a difficult start to the MLS season of their own, New York Red Bulls sat on a tally of just six points from six league games but have since seen a slight improvement in their fortunes.
Their upturn started with back-to-back wins, defeating Orlando City 2-1 and Nashville SC 2-0 before being narrowly beaten by New England Revolution and held to a goalless draw by Atlanta United.
Gerhard Struber's men made a return to winning ways recently, as a Cristian Casseres opener and a late Fabio winner saw them defeat Orlando City 2-1 away from home in an eye-catching result.
They then looked set to see out a 1-0 home win over Philadelphia Union last time out thanks to Patryk Klimala's opener on the hour mark, only for Sergio Santos to draw the visitors level in the 85th minute, forcing the New York side to share the points.
Despite the disappointment of dropping two points in that game, they will be encouraged by the improvement in results in the last month and will aim to continue that on Thursday with what would be another crucial win in their pursuit of playoff spots.
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Team News
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Experienced forward Jozy Altidore should return to the Toronto starting lineup, having come off the bench to open the scoring last time out after a spell away from the first team.
Other than Altidore, they are particularly limited for options going forward currently, with Ayo Akinola away on international duty and Erickson Gallardo and Ifunanyachi Achara out of action through injury.
They are not the end of Toronto's selection concerns either, with defenders Eriq Zavaleta and Kemar Lawrence and midfielders Jonathan Osorio and Richard Laryea all out of contention.
Fabio and Patryk Klimala should continue to partner up in attack for New York Red Bulls, having each found the net in one of the last two MLS outings.
They also have a long list of injury concerns, with the likes of Aaron Long, Andrew Gutman, Andres Reyes and Tom Edwards all out of action.
Struber also finds himself without midfielders Caden Clark, Daniel Royer and Youba Diarra, hugely limiting the Austrian's options.
Cristian Casseres should feature on the left flank, possessing the ability to punish the Toronto back line.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Auro, Gonzalez, Mavinga, Morrow; Delgado, Bradley; Endoh, Pozuelo, Soteldo; Altidore
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Duncan, Edwards, Tarek, Tolkin; Casseres, Yearwood, Davis, Carmona; Fabio, Klimala
We say: Toronto 1-1 New York Red Bulls
In a battle between two sides seemingly on the up after poor starts to the season, we cannot split them, and expect both teams to avoid defeat on Thursday.
Both will likely eye the fixture up as a good opportunity to collect three more points, but we do not see either falling to a defeat given their quick improvements.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
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