We said: Empoli 1-2 Roma
Winless for weeks, Empoli have been unable to pick up many points at home, while hit-and-miss Roma are often below-par away.
The visitors' increasing options, following further recruitment in the current transfer window, mean that they can edge a close-fought game by a one-goal margin - at least keeping them in the top-six mix.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.64%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 23.21% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.89%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
