We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Sampdoria
Atalanta's depleted attack and thinned options in defence makes it hard to imagine a traditional Dea romping, especially with the Gewiss Stadium not being kind to them so far this term.
However, Giampaolo is yet to inspire a change in Sampdoria's winless and scoreless away form and has his own absent players to work around, so we have faith in the hosts to build on their stellar European showing and halt the Blucerchiati momentum in a closely-fought battle.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 78.13%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.51%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.13%) and 1-0 (10.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.83%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
