Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.74%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 19.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.