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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Stevenage in this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Stevenage |
33.16% ( 0.1) | 28.53% ( 0.03) | 38.31% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 45.98% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.63% ( -0.1) | 60.37% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.48% ( -0.07) | 80.52% ( 0.07) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.17% ( 0.02) | 33.83% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.5% ( 0.02) | 70.5% ( -0.02) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.5% ( -0.13) | 30.5% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.28% ( -0.15) | 66.72% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Stevenage |
1-0 @ 11.18% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0) Other @ 2.39% Total : 33.16% | 1-1 @ 13.27% 0-0 @ 10.32% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.53% | 0-1 @ 12.25% 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.28% Total : 38.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 |
2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 |
P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 |
5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 |
10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 |
11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 |
12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 |
13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 |
14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 |
16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 |
17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 |
R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 |
R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 |
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