Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Chaves in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Chaves.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
44.91% ( -0.24) | 26.15% ( -0.05) | 28.94% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 51.37% ( 0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.22% ( 0.33) | 52.78% ( -0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.59% ( 0.28) | 74.41% ( -0.28) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.58% ( 0.02) | 23.42% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.58% ( 0.04) | 57.42% ( -0.04) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.08% ( 0.39) | 32.92% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.5% ( 0.43) | 69.5% ( -0.43) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
1-0 @ 11.19% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.37% 3-0 @ 3.93% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.84% Total : 44.91% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.05) Other @ 1% Total : 26.15% | 0-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.52% Total : 28.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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