Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.53%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
35.63% | 27.85% | 36.53% |
Both teams to score 48.27% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.33% | 57.67% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.57% | 78.43% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.19% | 30.81% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.92% | 67.08% |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.76% | 30.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.59% | 66.41% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 10.97% 2-1 @ 7.72% 2-0 @ 6.46% 3-1 @ 3.03% 3-0 @ 2.53% 3-2 @ 1.81% Other @ 3.1% Total : 35.63% | 1-1 @ 13.11% 0-0 @ 9.32% 2-2 @ 4.62% Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.84% | 0-1 @ 11.14% 1-2 @ 7.85% 0-2 @ 6.66% 1-3 @ 3.13% 0-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 1.84% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.32% Total : 36.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
3 | Braga | 27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 62 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
8 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 25 |
16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
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