Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajaccio | Draw | Auxerre |
34.31% ( -0.02) | 27.12% ( -0.01) | 38.57% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 50.37% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.02% ( 0.04) | 54.97% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.75% ( 0.03) | 76.25% ( -0.04) |
Ajaccio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.7% ( 0) | 30.3% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.52% ( 0.01) | 66.48% ( -0.01) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.27% ( 0.03) | 27.72% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.71% ( 0.05) | 63.29% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Ajaccio | Draw | Auxerre |
1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.06% 3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 34.31% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.92% Total : 27.11% | 0-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.91% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.13% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 38.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |