Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 74.05%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 10.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 3-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.