Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.29%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 11.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (3.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.