Copa Sudamericana | Final
Nov 20, 2021 at 8pm UK
Arena da Baixada
Athletico PR
1 - 0
Bragantino
The Estadio Centenario in the capital city of Uruguay, Montevideo, is the venue for Saturday's Copa Sudamericana final involving two Brazilian outfits, Athletico Paranaense and Bragantino.
Both sides won their semi-final ties comfortably, and Paranaense are aiming to win this competition for the first time since 2018, while Bragantino are bidding to lift the Copa Sudamericana trophy for the first time in their history.
Read more.
Match preview
Alberto Valentim's side are not having a brilliant season domestically, currently sitting 13th in the Brasileiro, and Paranaense have lost their last two games heading into this final. Last time out in the league, Athletico Paranaense fell to a narrow defeat against table-toppers Atletico Mineiro, but Valentim's team are still only one point behind the Copa Sudamericana places. Their semi-final tie came against Club Atletico Penarol and after a 2-1 victory away from home in the first leg, Paranaense finished the job comfortably with a 2-0 win in the second meeting. Valentim will need to ensure that his side do not continue with their current league form and the 13th-placed Brasileiro side will need to not be fazed by Bragantino's superior league position. Mauricio Barbieri's side are also not in great form heading into this final, having lost four out of their last five league games, but they remain fourth in the Brasileiro and currently occupy a Copa Libertadores position. Red Bull Bragantino suffered a damning defeat against Gremio, who are in the relegation zone, and the hosts had the job done at half time as they went into the break 3-0 ahead. Perhaps the Bragantino side had more focus on this Saturday's outing, as the Gremio game only came on Tuesday, but looking at their form over a longer period of time, the side are on their worst run of the year. Barbieri's team also eased their way into the Copa Sudamericana final, with a 2-0 win over Libertad in the first leg and a 3-1 triumph in the second-leg tie of their semi-final. These two sides met in the Brasileiro earlier this month, and Athletico Paranaense are the team which can take confidence from that as they ran out 2-0 winners against Bragantino thanks to goals from Marcinho and Pedro Rocha.Athletico Paranaense Copa Sudamericana form:
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
Bragantino Copa Sudamericana form:
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
Bragantino form (all competitions):
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
Athletico Paranaense defender Lucas Halter has not featured all season and he will continue to be absent due to injury, along with striker Matheus, who picked up an injury at the end of July. Only Christian Cardoso retained his place in the starting lineup for Paranaense last time out, and Valentim is expected to revert to a similar team which earned their last victory against Ceara. Renato Kayzer will lead the line, with Nikao and David Terans supporting him from attacking-midfield roles, while Marcinho and Abner provide the width from their wing-back positions. Bragantino are suffering from a whole host of absentees due to injury, including Bruno Tubarao, Ramires, Lucas Evangelista, Raul and Vitinho. Barbieri changed all of his starting lineup last time out, so he is expected to name a similar lineup to the side which beat Fortaleza last weekend. Artur Guimaraes is unlikely to win the Golden Boot for this year's Copa Sudamericana, as he is currently three goals short of the top goalscorer in this competition, but he is certain to start along with Helio Junio on the other wing. Aderlan, Fabricio Bruno, Leo Ortiz and Edimar Fraga will be looking to keep a clean sheet as the defensive line for Bragantino, while goalkeeper Cleiton Schwengber will win the Golden Gloves if he keeps Paranaense out. Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup: Santos; Hernandez, Heleno, Henrique; Abner, Cardoso, Erick, Marcinho; Terans, Nikao; Kayzer Bragantino possible starting lineup: Schwengber; Fraga, Ortiz, Bruno, Aderlan; Ramires, Jadsom; Junio, Praxedes, Guimaraes; YtaloWe said: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Bragantino (After Extra Time)
Both sides have had similar results en route to this final, and extra time is likely to be needed to help split these two teams as their form is also very similar. Athletico Paranaense should be able to use their experience from 2018 when they won this title to come through against a side making their debut in the Copa Sudamericana final.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Bragantino |
| 41.49% | 25.16% | 33.34% |
| Both teams to score 56.56% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
