Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.