Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Western United had a probability of 37.19% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.22%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Macarthur in this match.
