Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.64%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou would win this match.
