Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Leeds United had a probability of 14.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Leeds United win it was 2-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Manchester City |
14.1% ( 0.04) | 17.88% ( -0.09) | 68.03% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 56.77% ( 0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.04% ( 0.56) | 34.96% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.05% ( 0.62) | 56.95% ( -0.61) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.66% ( 0.42) | 37.35% ( -0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.87% ( 0.41) | 74.13% ( -0.41) |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.6% ( 0.16) | 9.4% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.37% ( 0.38) | 31.63% ( -0.37) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Manchester City |
2-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.03% Total : 14.1% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.88% | 0-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 7.73% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 7.62% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 4.57% ( 0) 1-4 @ 4.5% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.05) 0-5 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 2.13% ( 0.04) 2-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.51% Total : 68.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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