Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.02%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 8.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.04%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.54%), while for a Brighton & Hove Albion win it was 1-2 (2.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Manchester City | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
79.02% ( 0.64) | 12.67% ( -0.25) | 8.3% ( -0.4) |
Both teams to score 56.61% ( -0.89) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.51% ( -0.17) | 25.48% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.45% ( -0.22) | 45.54% ( 0.22) |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.92% ( 0.06) | 5.07% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.8% ( 0.2) | 20.19% ( -0.21) |
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.64% ( -0.98) | 40.36% ( 0.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.02% ( -0.9) | 76.98% ( 0.9) |
Score Analysis |
Manchester City | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.25% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 2% ( 0.08) 6-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.03) Other @ 5.85% Total : 79.02% | 1-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.67% | 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.8% Total : 8.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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