Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
29.46% ( 2.75) | 24.79% ( 0.21) | 45.75% ( -2.96) |
Both teams to score 56.06% ( 1.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.19% ( 0.83) | 46.81% ( -0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.93% ( 0.77) | 69.06% ( -0.78) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.54% ( 2.47) | 29.45% ( -2.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.54% ( 2.92) | 65.46% ( -2.93) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% ( -0.92) | 20.52% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.97% ( -1.47) | 53.02% ( 1.47) |
Score Analysis |
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.5) 2-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.38) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.29) Other @ 3.34% Total : 29.46% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.63) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.73) 1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 4% ( -0.51) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.25) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 45.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |