Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 52.55%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
