Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
