Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
