Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 35.63%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (11.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
35.63% ( 0.48) | 28.77% ( -0.12) | 35.6% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 45.51% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.95% ( 0.41) | 61.05% ( -0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.97% ( 0.31) | 81.03% ( -0.3) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.47% ( 0.53) | 32.52% ( -0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.94% ( 0.59) | 69.05% ( -0.59) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.45% ( -0.02) | 32.54% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.92% ( -0.03) | 69.08% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 35.62% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.58% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.76% | 0-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 35.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
3 | Braga | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 65 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 39 |
9 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 35 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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