Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.